Kym Hall referred primarily to data she had collected and interpreted in preparing a thesis for her Master of Science degree from the Department of Environmental Studies, Antioch New England Graduate School in 2002. The thesis was titled, "A Baseline Data Study of the Hydrologic Regime and Wetland Plant Communities at Hackett Hill, Manchester, New Hampshire." Each member of the Lands and Buildings Committee had received a CD of her thesis in advance of the meeting. In the introduction of her thesis Kym has stated, "It is the intent of this research to provide baseline data documenting existing hydrologic conditions and plant community structure and composition in the Hackett Hill wetlands (previous studies have collectively referred to these wetlands as the "Manchester Cedar Swamp") under predevelopment conditions (i.e., prior to planned development activities on the Property.)"
Atlantic white cedars have very specific requirements for water chemistry, soil structure composition, soil chemistry, moisture, temperature, and light. Kym noted that, in the past, researchers of other Atlantic white cedar swamps have noted a remarkably high potential for degradation of the wetlands, due to adjacent upland development. In numerous instances, land clearing and interference with normal hydrologic functioning resulting from urban development have been largely responsible for the wetlands degradation, with a strong correlation between increased water levels and tree mortality. Her studies were performed to document quantitatively the "hydrological regime and wetland plant communities located within the Hackett Hill wetland complex" so as to provide baseline, pre-development data.
Kym's thesis quotes other research studies which concluded that deveopment in the area of the abandoned parking system poses the greatest threat to a wetland basin which is located immediately downgradient to the southwest - a basin which contains not only Atlantic white cedars, but giant rhododendrons and black gum trees. The relatively steep slopes and shallow soils that exist where much of the proposed development will occur is very noticeable here. These conditions would promote movement of infiltrated water into the swamps, along with the contaminants it contains - nutrients, salt and sediment.
Kym noted that degradation of the cedar swamps is accompanied by a replacement of the specialized Atlantic white cedars with invasive species that are tolerant of a wide range of conditions. Colonies of a highly invasive species, Phragmites, have appeared on Hackett Hill north of the TNC property as development occurred adjacent to non-specialized wetlands. It is possible that in time, the highly-prized Atlantic white cedar swamps could be replaced by undesirable, low-quality plants of this nature.
The data collection and interpretation done by Kym have provided an opportunity for The Nature Conservancy to continue these studies. Thus substantial data will be available to compare with any changes in the wetlands that would accompany the construction of roads and buildings on Hackett Hill. In this fashion, those individuals who have permitted and promoted the development could be considered responsible for the loss of the cedar swamps.
Kym recommended that a "zero development" status be maintained for the Hackett Hill property formerly owned by UNH. Her presentation echoed the concluding comments she had made in her thesis that development will not only cause a loss of the Atlantic white cedars, but will severely compromise the ability of the preserve to provide wildlife habitat, as well as educational, recreational, and aesthetic value to the community.
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Pat Mattson noted that reported that there has been no conservation plan set up by the City for the area where the buildings and roads will be located, although a conservation plan should logically precede any development plan. The City's approach to carry out the construction involved in the Master Plan first, shows absolutely no concern for what life forms will be displaced - data which should be made available to the public for consideration.
Pat noted that in spite of the City's lack of planning in this regard, a number of independent studies have been done of the area under consideration. She noted that Kym's thesis-related investigations concerned not only the swampland proper, but also referred to the uplands immediately associated with the swamps and her reports that they are completely inappropriate for development. She also noted that Kym, in another Antioch-related investigation, had noted the presence of a number of vernal pools on the property to be developed and had peformed a detailed analysis of one of them.
Pat also referred to a study performed by Christine Morin and Steven Pugh which they presented as a Power Point presentation to the Manchester Conservation Commission and members of the public. Their data, which primarily concerned the presence of mammalian species, indicated that the area to be utilized for development is currently the territory of fisher cats, porcupine, moose, deer etc. - species which are part of the "food chain" on Hackett Hill and conceivably could be extirpated (made locally extinct) by the development. She used a laser pointer and the City's map of the planned industrial park to show how the park would be located where the animal habitats currently exist.
The land to be utilized for development is currently about 95% forested - the clear-cutting which accompanies development will destroy the habitat of numerous birds that have been identified on or near the area under consideration.
The 2003 version of the Hackett Hill master plan contains a "preliminary development pro forma" which covers the 12 years of the development project.
It has been a major contention of city officials that a Hackett Hill business/industrial park which provide the city with considerable financial profit and thus bring about tax relief. Peter Flood had examined the pro forma to determine the truth of this statement and presented his interpretation to the Committee.
Flood noted that he had found a mistake of over 2 million dollars in the manner in which a portion of the pro forma had been prepared. The pro forma preparator had based municipal operating costs on $296 per square feet of construction - a methodology that resulted in a total cost for the 12 year period of $2,390,440. Flood noted that municipal operating costs should instead be based on $296/$1000 of tax revenue - a calculation that would result in a 12 year cost of $4,684,943 - a discrepancy of $2,294,543.
More importantly, Flood noted that the pro forma did not take into consideration impact costs to the city as a result of the planned development. He took statistics and costs from Eben Fodor's book, "Better Not Bigger", and calculated likely impact costs to the City as follows:
The pro form indicated that the development project would result in jobs for 5600 employees.
a. It is assumed that 75% of the 5600 employees will be parents, that 50% of them will create new households in Manchester (2100), that .67 school age children per household would be forthcoming (1407), and that the weighted school capital cost per household would be $11,377.
b. The School Capital Costs ($11,377 x 2100 new 3 BR households) would equal $23,891,700.
c. The cost of bonding @ 5% would equal $1,194,585/year.
d. The cost of other development impacts @ $14,000/dwelling + $11,600/1000 sf of office space would equal $45,640,000.
e. The cost of bonding @ 5% would equal $2,282,000/year.
f. The cost of servicing residential use @ $140/1000 taxes (2100 homes @ 200,000 evaluation) would equal $1,512,000/year.
g. The cost of 1407 students at $7000/yr/student would equal $9,849,000/year.
Thus the total possible impact costs from the proposed Hackett Hill Development would equal $14,837,585/year!
The fact that the development would prove to be a costly undertaking for the City, instead of bringing about tax relief, is a powerful reason for not undertaking the development. Although the methodology used by Flood seems quite straightforward, he suggested that Manchester seriously consider hiring a consultant such as Eben Fodor to do a thorough impact analysis on the Hackett Hill Plan.